My favorite chess book

Whenever students ask me what modern chess book I like most, my answer is Willy Hendriks’ book called Move First, Think Later. It is one of the very few chess books of the last 10-15 years that brings something conceptually new, a paradigm shift. It is not a small thing to have the “insolence” to prove that so many ideas deeply rooted in chess literature are mere myths. They keep being taught and passed on to new generations of chess players, usually by people who know very well that it is not how they actually think themselves during the game.

The major theme of the book is that chess is much more concrete than we like to think. Any sort of theoretical concepts, guidelines, rules, evaluations make little sense if they’re not backed up by concrete variations. We would like things to be different. Chess would be so much easier if all we had to do was to memorize a few pages filled with nice chess ideas, and based on that list we could come up with the right moves every time. We learn chess by being exposed to good chess moves, we don’t improve our chess by reading some texts. That is why going over GM games helps so much, and it is how my own chess journey began. We learn by imitation.

Some of his ideas and even entire paragraphs are so close to the way I understand chess, that sometimes I feel that most likely I met Hendriks at some point and he had some kind of revolutionary mind-reading device. It is the book I would have liked to write.

Hendriks may not be right in everything he says, and no doubt his ideas have irritated many, but he presents arguments and examples that are hard to ignore. It is written in an alert, accessible style, has hundreds of well-chosen and thought-provoking examples. I recommend that all serious chess players go through the book, even those who have completely different points of view. I am going to list some of the most interesting ideas, without going into details or concrete examples.

The thought process does not start with a pure static analysis

There is a widespread idea that a serious thought process would begin with some sort of static analysis of the position, trying to understand all strengths and weaknesses. After that, based on those findings, a plan would be formulated, ultimately arriving at a move to serve that plan. It makes perfect sense, but in the real world no serious player does that. From the moment we see the position, almost involuntarily, our mind begins to test different moves, to follow possible scenarios, and it is from the outcome of those scenarios that we realize which positional features are relevant. It is useless, for example, to notice that one particular square is weak, if you have no concrete possibility of getting there. A beautiful lead in development means nothing if there are no concrete ways to open the position and attack. In most cases there are a lot of positional factors that can be “asymmetric”, imbalances are very common. But it is only the concrete analysis of moves that reveals which of them matters. Most of the time, there is no temporal separation of the concrete analysis of the moves and the strategic findings. They run in parallel (as we examine different moves we get a deeper understanding of the characteristics of the position). As Hendriks says, “you can’t have an important positional trait that isn’t connected to an effective move.” When people see the title of the book, their first reaction is something like “What is this guy trying to say, that you just play a move first, and then start thinking? It makes no sense!” Obviously, that is not the meaning of the title. The idea is that you have to analyze (not play!) specific moves first, before you determine what types of chess thoughts make sense.

Verbal protocols do not help

A widespread myth is that one could arrive at the correct move by following some verbal protocol, some general rules that can be learned from textbooks. For example, if the opponent attacks you on the flank, react with a counterattack in the center. The problem is that very often the best reaction is a move on the same flank, which slows down the opponent substantially. And other times, just as frequently, it’s effective to attack on the opposite flank, because you’re faster, you win the race. Again the same conclusion is reached – it is the concrete analysis of the existing possibilities that leads to finding the appropriate strategy. You don’t find the correct move by starting from a rule, because in almost any position you can find different moves that satisfy different rules. Once you’ve determined which move works, you can triumphantly state that it’s rule X that’s highlighted here. From a didactic point of view, it is very tempting to take a position whose concrete best move or solution is already known to you, the coach, and pretend that you arrive at that solution by following the verbal protocol that is the theme of the lesson. But you would have arrived at a different move had you followed the verbal protocol of a different lesson. Today the student learns that in positions with an extra pawn it is good to trade pieces, and goes over nice clean examples where the extra pawn has been elegantly converted. Tomorrow the exact same student is criticized for trading pieces in his own pawn up game, because it lead to a drawn rook ending. The day after tomorrow the student trades instead of finding the idea of ​​an attack on the king, where he had superior forces. And the third day he gets trashed because he tried to attack the king, took some risks and lost, instead of trading pieces and playing for two results. 🙂

General rules don’t tell us what move to play

Also related to general rules, there are many that contradict each other and as a result are absolutely useless from a practical point of view. There are examples where, in the same book, one page reads “don’t defend passively when you are worse, look for counterplay, even if it means investing material”, and just a few pages later “be patient, prolong resistance, don’t make things worse by reckless actions.” Obviously, both rules followed by game examples. It can even get funny – actual book – on page 120 we find “don’t stress about finding the best move; be pragmatic, just find a good move”, after which on page 124 we learn that “if you found a good move, look for an even better one!”.

There is no big plan

The books are full of examples where one side follows a certain plan from the beginning until a decisive advantage is obtained. In reality, this is extremely rare when players are close in strength. It could happen when Capablanca or Alekhine defeated someone much weaker. In a modern game it’s more common to have a number of small plans, and sometimes have to be changed along the way, because the opponent reacts to everything we are trying to do. The illusion, however, is maintained at the didactic level, even if we know today that many of those classic games often cited only describe what the author already knew. The annotations were produced with the power of hindsight.

Critical moments are not obvious during the game

There is a very widespread idea that in every game there would be 1-2-3 critical moments, where the player should spend a lot of time to find the right move. A game viewed from the outside, after it has been completed, appears to consist of long sequences of simple, natural moves, interrupted by critical moments when either white or black made a mistake or found an exceptional move that changed the balance of the game. But the way players perceive the battle, during the game, is the complete opposite. They feel the tension and weight of decisions at almost every move, with very few being seen as obvious, or simple. The proof is that mistakes can be made at any moment of the game! It’s easy to come back later and say – look, this is where you should have thought more. Most of the time it is difficult to determine the so-called critical moment while playing, it only becomes obvious later.

It is not always bad form

Most people have a complete lack of understanding of natural statistical distributions. It just doesn’t match their intuitions. Out of a large number of throws, a perfectly balanced die lands on each face with approximately the same frequency (1/6 of the total). But this does not mean that there are no series in which a number appears much less frequently or more frequently. It is perfectly possible that out of the first 60 rolls, the number 1 will not come up 10 times, but 4 times or 18 times. In the same way, two players with exactly the same rating and strength will have asymmetrical results in a match. It is possible that from the first 10 games one of them leads 7-3, without it being proof of the other guy’s lack of form. By playing more games, the score will even out. A 2200 player will have tournaments where the result corresponds to a 2000 level and others where it is similar to a 2400. This is completely natural.

It is not always about psychological factors

There is an exaggerated tendency to explain mistakes by psychological issues, instead of the real technical reason. Too often we hear explanations like “I was afraid of the opponent”, “I was obsessed with the clock ticking down”, “I was still thinking about the previous opportunities”, etc. instead of actual chess reasons (not enough familiarity with the idea behind ​​the tactic, calculation too slow or not deep enough, bad selection of candidate moves, etc.). The main reason people lose games has little to do with psychology and feelings. Those negative emotions are the result of losing control over what’s happening on the board (and not the other way around).

Hard work is not enough

The role of talent, which is genetically determined, is incomparably greater than most people realize. There are players who will never get past 2000, or 2300, or 2500, regardless of the amount of work and quality of instruction they receive. It’s a topic I have talked about at length on other occasions, I’ve even added an example to the blog. I’m glad Hendriks and others have reached the same conclusions.

Does talent matter?

Some of the questions I get asked a lot have to do with the never-ending nature vs. nurture debate.

  • Do we have equal potential to become IMs, GMs, or even world champions?
  • Is there something that we could call talent when it comes to chess abilities, or it’s all about training the right way?
  • If my son/daughter gets the best chess tuition and works really hard, will he/she become one of the best in the world?

I wrote an article on this topic a few years ago (in Romanian), and I am posting most of it below. My position hasn’t changed since then.

Opinions on the relative importance of native versus environmental factors (where environment means everything else, including training, coaching, etc.) vary widely. Traditionally, very strong chess players have been seen as the ideal example of special native endowment, as have great composers or mathematicians. This picture makes sense intuitively. It is very easy for anyone to learn the rules of the game and the basic ideas, but it seems extraordinarily difficult to achieve the performance of winning dozens of simultaneous games or crushing opponents without even looking at the board. Besides, what else but genius could explain the astonishing performances of child prodigies like Morphy, Capablanca or Reshevsky?!

Reshevsky crushing opponents and the age of 8

The opinion was shared by most past champions. You might enjoy hearing the voice of the great Alekhine, who seemed to be very convinced that great chess players are born, not made (around second 35).

The widespread egalitarian fallacies that have become prevalent in the last decades did not forget or forgive chess. An important contribution was made by some studies published in the 90s, but even more so by the success of the Polgár experiment, which proved (in the view of many) that directed, sustained work, from the youngest ages, leads to exceptional results. More on this later.

From the point of view of serious research, a very important moment was represented by a study published in 1993 by the psychologist K. Anders Ericsson and his team. It introduced the concept of deliberate practiceDeliberate practice (DP) is defined as sustained work aimed at improving performance in a specific domain. The authors make a clear distinction between DP and two other forms of activity: work , assumed to be an effort motivated primarily by external rewards, and play , respectively, seen as inherently pleasurable activities lacking a long-term goal. In the original paper, the authors were able to find a correlation between the level achieved by a group of violinists and the number of hours of DP. The best violinists had somewhere over 10,000 hours of DP, compared to mid-level violinists who were around the 7500 level and the not so good ones at 5000 or less. This is the origin of the infamous 10,000 hours myth – supposedly enough to achieve excellence in a field. In later work, the authors extended their research to other groups (pianists, chess players!), maintaining the position that the only difference between those who excel in that field and the rest is the number of hours of DP. However, even these authors agreed that it is entirely possible that the willingness of individuals to engage in DP for very long periods of time is a genetically determined characteristic. Thus, in their view, there is no talent or genius as such in any field, but there might exist a predisposition towards sustained work. This is the only concession they made.

Ericsson’s ideas quickly caught the public’s imagination and were followed by a wave of popular science articles in which various authors sought to show that the only thing that differentiates individuals is the amount of work put in to achieve a goal, and as a result any parent can make their child a genius in any field they want. The practical results, however, are still awaited. However, negative reactions followed, highlighting serious deficiencies in the methodology used by Ericsson and in the interpretation of the results. One of the biggest problems is that he never took into account the very numerous cases of individuals who gave up on their original goal after long periods of DP precisely because they couldn’t get anywhere close to the desired results. In other words,  DP seems indeed to be a necessary condition for success, but not a sufficient one! Other obvious problems stem from the difficulty of accurately estimating the number of hours of DP, which is based on some rough approximations made by the subjects. Also, it is impossible to determine the quality of DP (one person could do more in one hour than another person in 3). Finally, it is highly unlikely that the same threshold (10,000 hours) is universally valid, regardless of activity or goal.

Strictly related to the field of chess, there are at least 6 studies that sought to find a possible correlation between the number of hours of DP and the level reached by the player (expressed by the ELO coefficient). They are listed below (the excerpt is taken from a paper published in 2013 by Hambrick et al.):

The above authors are generally psychologists and chess enthusiasts at the same time. Guillermo Campitelli, for example, is an Argentinian with a maximum rating of around 2200, which intrigued him precisely because he had been striving for many years, including during his junior years, to reach an international title. Despite the large number of hours of DP he failed to do so. Once he became an internationally known researcher, he aimed among other things to find explanations related to his failure. After thoroughly questioning a large number of chess players he discovered “strange” things that contradicted the official DP dogma. His findings confirm that training is indeed important, but at the same time suggest that the speed of progress varies a lot, plus there is an individual ceiling. Let me quote him:

The problem is that among the players who reached master level, some did it in 3,000 hours… while others took 30,000 hours and reached the same level. And there are people who have trained well over 30,000 hours and have not reached this level.

I do not wish to go into technical detail details regarding the statistical methodology used to analyze the results of the above studies. A meta-analysis is graphically represented below:

What the figure shows is particularly important. It appears that, at least among the chess players analyzed to date (nearly 1100 players!),  DP contributes only 34% to the level achieved by the player. The remaining 66% cannot be explained by this element, being very likely the contribution of what we could call talent.

I am attaching another interesting graph from Gobet & Campitelli’s 2007 study.

The chart has intermediate level players (below 2000) as white bars, expert level players (between 2000 and 2200) as gray bars and master level players (over 2200) as black bars. It’s easy to see that the black bars (stronger players) tend to cluster to the right, corresponding to a greater number of hours of study, while the white bars (modest players) seem to be more frequently on the left (fewer hours of study). That makes perfect sense, but the anomalies prove that the number of study hours (DP) does not explain everything. Hambrick’s remarks:

  • There is a major overlap in the distributions, for example about a third of masters had fewer DP hours than the average of the expert group, and a few masters even had less DP than the average of the intermediate player group (players 2 classes below!).
  • Among intermediate players (below 2000), a quarter had more AD than the expert average and a few had more practice than the master average.
  • The number of hours of AD, in the case of masters, varies greatly, between 832 and 24,284 hours – a difference of almost 3 orders of magnitude (!!).

detailed analysis published in 2011 by Robert Howard regarding the Polgár phenomenon leads to interesting conclusions as well. The 3 sisters are known to have undergone an intensive training program from an early age with their father and later with various high caliber trainers. Even if we ignore Sofia, some interesting differences emerge between the two more famous sisters. Judit reached a peak of 2735 after about 60,000 hours of DP, while Zsuzsa had a much lower peak of 2577 after much more training, about 80,000 hours! Equally interesting is the fact that the average number of hours required to reach the maximum rating, for the top 10 players in the world at the time, was only 14,000. So, again, it can be said that a targeted, intense, and long-term training is necessary for high performance, but there are very large differences between individuals related to both the speed with which they progress and the maximum level they can reach. In addition, we should consider the following element: the sisters were already performing amazing feats at very young ages (for example Judit beat a master without seeing the board at 7), when they were not even close to the magical threshold of 10,000 hours of training. It is logical to assume that in the Polgár family there is a set of genes allowing the owners to learn chess with great ease.

Another key factor that several studies have highlighted is the particular importance of the age at which DP begins. It seems that to achieve excellence in chess, it must be as small as possible. A child manages to progress much faster than an adult, and furthermore, it seems that those who start after childhood do not make it to the top, regardless of the number of hours of DP.

There are obvious differences between kids trying to learn chess, clearly visible as soon as they see a chess board for the first time. Some of them grasp everything quickly, others need additional explanations, multiple repetitions and forget more. I have personally witnessed kids who couldn’t master the technique of checkmating with king and rook vs. lone king in 2 hours, while other kids get it in 5 minutes. Long before we can talk about thousands of hours of training, we can see how absurd the blank slate theory is. The same has been reported in all fields, whether it is piano, football or mathematics. The signs of genius are obvious long before the number of hours worked or the quality of any coach can be suspected of having an influence. At the age of 2-3, Magnus Carlsen could solve problems and play games designed for much older children. At 5, he would read geography books and could name all countries and their capitals. His father tried to teach him chess at that age, but he was not interested initially. At the age of 7 he took up chess again, on his own, and within a year he was stronger than his older sisters, who had been playing chess for years. Does anyone think that Magnus is where he is just because he studied a lot?! How many hours of study had he managed to accumulate by the age of 13, when he was already giving Kasparov a very hard time? Was he a product of the powerful Norwegian school of chess? If Agdestein took any other child and trained him, would that kid reach 2870? We all know the answers.

Some have fooled themselves by doing retrospective studies, just like Ericsson. A retrospective study is one that looks at past events. For example, we can compare champions and low-level players, and find that, in general, champions trained more – hence the conclusion that training explains their level. WRONG. This conclusion has been proven false in all cases where prospective studies were used instead. Such studies start with a group of individuals at the same level and track their progress into the future for years. What we find is that the number of hours is actually a poor predictor for the level a student reaches (students who studied exactly the same amount of time ended on vastly different levels, and others even dropped out along the way, precisely because they realized that they were not making progress).

Why are there so many top chess coaches who downplay the importance of talent? How come they don’t notice what any kindergarten teacher, or any parent with two or more children notices? There are several reasons:

  • Some coaches are acutely aware of the reality that certain players are untalented and say so in private, but not in public or when discussing with their students or their families. The reason is obvious, they don’t want to lose their customers. It is a source of income. Car mechanics will find something wrong with the car, doctors know another checkup is needed, lawyers want you to appeal every time.
  • Very good coaches manage to maximize the genetic potential existing in each individual. They manage to get more than the student could have achieved on his own. They notice that, in general, students who work harder get higher, and automatically assume that it’s just the number of hours that makes the difference. In reality, even the disposition to work long hours is likely genetically determined.
  • Very good coaches get to train the best students, precisely those who are the most talented of their generation. There is a serious pre-selection. Kids who don’t like chess don’t even make it to a club or a coach. Of those who like it, a large proportion have no talent and are quickly lost. Of the few who do get to play serious tournaments, an even smaller proportion goes on to win titles and medals, becoming leaders of their generation. And of those, only the most promising end up working with an internationally renowned coach. Being used to such children with an obvious gift for chess, the coach may wrongly extrapolate what he sees to the general population.
  • The egalitarian model is that at some point, by chance, student X begins to prepare more than student Y, and as a result in a few years there will be a clear difference in playing strength between them. The model closer to reality, however, is different: X and Y come into contact with chess, X understands and learns chess a lot easier; as a result X works harder than Y because he enjoys it, and because some positive results show up (rating, medals), which in turn stimulate him to prepare even more. A positive feedback is in place.

I understand that the fact that talent plays a role can feel disheartening to many. They are probably asking themselves “What if I am not one of the lucky ones? Am I just wasting my time?”. The good news is that, for most people, the “ceiling” is way higher than they think, and definitely higher than their current level. As I keep saying, chess has to be fun. Yes, maybe you don’t have 2700+ genes. But you can gain another 200 points, and I hope the path will be enjoyable.